#29 · Systems biology

Host diversion and spillover risk shape arbovirus and pandemic transmission modeling

The dominant thread is quantitative modeling that converts epidemiological or experimental data into parameters and bounds relevant to surveillance and control. A published vectorial capacity framework separates reservoir and dead-end hosts, quantifying vector diversion for West Nile virus in Culex pipiens under vector control. A further published study uses experimental transmission data to quantify viral pandemic potential for spillover surveillance. A preprint applies a reusable Wright-Fisher-based model with negative frequency-dependent selection on the accessory genome to pneumococcal vaccine replacement and surveillance design. Items differ in scope, so this thread is not shared uniformly across entries. What is new is explicit treatment of host diversion as a modifier of arbovirus transmission under control, alongside models that frame surveillance strategy around selection and transmission potential.